Inaugural BOD breakdown hand – Two Pair

bodbreakdownThis is going to be a new running series where we share 1 hand and the players thoughts.  The thoughts can be random, crazy, standard, or non-standard, but they are nonetheless other players thoughts, so there are numerous ways to gain value.  Feel free to submit your “BetOnDrew Breakdown” hand to betondrew@gmail.com and usually, as long as the thoughts are somewhat fluent, we will be happy to share them with the poker community

This breakdown is brought to you by BOD member Corey “iceman57” CresenziCorey can be regularly found playing $2/$5 cash games in Florida.
ThanksBetOnDrew.com
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Best Bet Casino in Jacksonville, FL.  2/5 NL full table. – buy in 200-500.
Everyone is sitting $500+ on the button with k4s.  folded to mp1 who opens to $15 and we have 6 going to flop. Flop comes out K 4 9 two hearts.  Checked around to hero on button who bets out $50 into roughly $100.  Everyone folds to the Asian sitting to hero direct right.  This type of player has been seen playing 2/5 and 5/10 mainly and is a regular in the games.  He is a bit loose and has shown aggression or looking people up lightly (calling light) in the past.  The turn comes out A of hearts and villain checks.  Hero thinks for a moment and checks back.  When the hero checks back here he is under-repping his hand a lot.  It is very hard for anyone to put him on the following type hands – (flush, set, two pair, etc) because it is being under repped and looks alot like Kx type hands (kj, kq, etc) or 9x type hands.  This creates the villian thinking that his top pair type hands are good in this spot and can fire out any river.  River comes offsuit 3 and villian fires out $75 into $200 pot.  This creates an easy call on the river.  Villain flips over AJ for pair of aces and hero scoops up the pot.
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What this comes down to is scare cards.  Just because the flush comes out doesn’t mean that I am always beat on the river when he leads into me.  If you break the hand out step by step, and think about (since he is a thinking player) what my hand range looks like to him (basically what he puts the hero on) then my hand range appears a lot wider than what my calling range really is here.   Yes, the way he played the hand it is possible that he had a flush.  Also, with the way the hand was played out and with the hero’s appeared range, this creates the villains range to be a lot wider, and since the hero’s range is actually tighter than appeared since he is under-repping his hand, there are a lot of river cards that you can make the call with.
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Thanks for sharing your thoughts with the poker community Corey. 

Comments

  1. I agree with almost everything in the article , especially that our hand is way under repped for the action that has taken place in the hand . I however don’t believe villains are betting this small on the river with made flushes very often . I would expect a much larger bet than this somewhere around 2/3rds to half pot from a made flush . I think the villains sizing is indicative of a one pair hand a lot of the time . Even with his sizing can we get 1 pair hands to call a raise here ? I don’t really think so .

    That leads me to my next thought of the imo , the better alternative line for this spot . I think I would be betting this turn for a couple of reasons . By betting the turn we can more accurately define villains range . We also can still get value from a kx with a heart (idk if the K on the board was a heart that could change combinatronics a little one way or the other that might change my opinion). I would bet $120 on the turn with the intention of it being a b/f . I don’t think people are semi-bluffing this board wit kx hearts and raising , therefore the only hands raising the turn would be ak , flush combos , and sets imo . In the case of the villain flatting and leading the river , I would have to again evaluate sizing but I think a lot of times I would just fold as he is essentially repping a flush.

    Just some of my thoughts , thanks for the post and look forward to the discussion .

    • Shit forgot to add the in the first part that villains river range is only defined imo so well because of his sizing . If he had led this river for a much larger bet of say 2/3rds to pot , this spot becomes a much tougher situation . This can all be fine if our turn action is widening his river bluffing frequency , but I have not seen that a lot in my experience so I would go for more getting my value on the turn instead of trying to bluff catch rivers .

  2. I agree with the sizing and a lot of one pair hands are doing that there. As far as B/F the turn there its not a bad move, you are defining the villians range a bit more but also making my range tighter as well where then hes never calling a river bet unless he has us beat, hes only raising us with hands that beat us or have good equity against our hands (pair +fd, etc) the K was hearts on the board fwiw which takes away some his possible combos. If he was a complete fish I bet the turn easily, because they will call with any king or any ace so often because they don’t know that folding top pair is feasible. Against a thinking player the ace is such a good card that you can c/r so often in that spot with a wide range and I can only call top of my range at that point, but a fish is rarely ever doing that. The river isn’t even a bluff catch anymore at this point, he was going for a thin value bet. I don’t feel a raise is that good there because I feel that you are only getting called by hands that beat us or rarely getting called by hands that we actually beat, plus we do have showdown value here. Against a fish of course you can easily take another line.

    Thanks for the comments!

  3. If we cant raise the river , then we have to be bluff catching . Our hand doesn’t have enough value vs his range even with this weak of sizing to raise . Therefore we are basically bluffcatching the river once we check the turn with the intention to check and call the river .

  4. For discussion purposes, hypothetically speaking, two questions.
    1). If you bet the turn 120 and he c/c, on this river checked to you, are you firing again or checking back?
    2). If you bet the turn 120 and he c/c then leads that river say 200ish into the 440ish pot (same sizing basically) how are you reacting there?

  5. 1) If checked too on this river , I think it becomes an interesting spot wit $440 in the pot , and about $700 behind in stacks , to me it comes down to whether or not the villain is capable of bluffcatching a one pair hand . I think I would prefer checking behind rather than bet-folding vs a reg , and I would bet-fold vs a fish
    with something like 150-180 on the river ( i would size it so small to make it so his one pair hands are more likely to call)

    2) With my leading the turn , I believe this makes my range so much stronger that if the villain check called turn and lead into my strong looking range on the river then he is essentially repping only a flush . So I would just fold the river to a large lead here and probably would fold to even a 1/2 pot lead because of the range the villain is repping and I just don’t see many people bluffing the river in smaller stakes poker.

    My reasoning for taking the different lines vs different opponents is because the fish is much less likely to be able to read my range for what it really is . While a reg could see the 1/3 bet on the river as weak and turn his bluffcatcher into a bluff and put me into a tough spot. I still think there is a valid argument for bet folding the river for something like 225$ or so vs the reg , the only part I don’t like about it is the fact that I don’t think the reg is calling enough one pair hands here on the river to risk opening the rest of our stack up to pressure .

    Thanks for the convo , I think I learned something about my own game that I hope to implement . 🙂

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